China

Downward price pressure persisted through 2025, with NBS/Reuters reporting December 2025 new-home prices down 0.4% m/m and 2.7% y/y (only 6 of 70 cities rising), while existing-home prices fell more broadly across tiers-consistent with a market still working through excess inventory and weak confidence. Macro flow data also stayed weak: Reuters reported 2025 property investment down 17.2% and home sales by floor area down 8.7%. A key 2025 signal is intensifying city-tier polarization: stronger top-tier markets (e.g., Shanghai) can show pockets of positive y/y pricing even as the national average declines, while lower-tier cities face slower absorption and longer destocking cycles. Ratings research echoed this split: S&P estimated nationwide primary sales would fall ~8% in 2025 and another ~6-7% in 2026, with polarization a defining feature. Policy easing has shifted toward granular, city-specific support: many cities have eased or removed purchase restrictions since the downturn began, and Beijing further relaxed purchase rules and reduced some provident-fund down payments in late 2025.

AI and data products are now core competitive levers for China's major housing platforms. KE Holdings' 2024 annual report describes dedicated AI applications and discloses that its Housing Dictionary covered ~289 million properties as of Dec. 31, 2024, supporting listing authenticity checks and valuation services. The same filing describes Beike's domain-specific models (ChatHome language model and DreamHome image model) and a broader Bella AI development/application platform, with examples including an AI rental property management assistant ('AI Abei') and an AI design tool for renovation renderings. Beike's open valuation tool ('e') markets batch valuation based on 'big data and AI' and a large housing database, indicating institutional demand for automated pricing and collateral analytics. On the consumer side, apps emphasize algorithmic recommendation ('guess you like'), map search, and virtual/3D viewing, as described in Anjuke and 5i5j app disclosures. In 2025, practical AI adoption is less about fully automated transactions and more about: lead qualification, pricing/valuation assistance, listing quality control, and faster remote viewing (VR), which reduces friction for cautious buyers and renters.

Listing integrity remains a major trust bottleneck (especially in classifieds-style channels), so platforms are competing on verification and complaint handling. KE Holdings reports using its Housing Dictionary (covering ~289 million properties as of Dec. 31, 2024) to verify listing authenticity and support valuation services-an explicit attempt to standardize 'truth' at the data layer. On the regulatory side, China has signaled stricter supervision of brokerage services, including enforcing broker/agency filing systems and real-name registration of practitioners-measures that, if enforced consistently, should reduce fake listings and undisclosed intermediaries but raise compliance costs. Investor takeaway for 2025: markets and portals that can credibly label 'verified/true listings' and maintain auditable transaction workflows should win share, while smaller brokers may be squeezed by compliance and customer-acquisition costs.

Financial stress and policy-guided restructuring remain catalysts for consolidation. A live 2025-early-2026 signal is continued refinancing pressure even on large, partly state-backed developers: Reuters reported China Vanke seeking repeated grace-period extensions on onshore bonds into 2026, positioning it as a high-profile test case for 'managed' distress resolution. At the policy level, Reuters reported discussion of mobilising central government-owned firms to buy unsold homes from troubled developers (reported via Bloomberg), which would effectively transfer inventory risk toward state balance sheets and accelerate cleanup. For portals and service platforms, this environment tends to favor scale players that can partner with banks/SOEs on asset disposition, rental conversion, and renovation-driving M&A or strategic tie-ups across brokerage, property management and home-improvement services.

Compliance for listing platforms is converging around three intersecting regimes: (1) housing/brokerage rules (filing, real-name practitioner registration, fee transparency), (2) advertising/consumer protection (ads must be truthful and non-misleading), and (3) data governance (PIPL + Data Security Law) covering consent, processing purpose limitation and security obligations. In 2025, tighter enforcement risk is not only about listings but also about how platforms use data for personalization and biometrics. CAC rules on facial recognition highlighted consent and the need to offer alternatives, reinforcing that 'smart building/proptech' features must be privacy-by-design. Net impact: higher compliance burden favors large platforms with legal/infosec capacity and pushes the ecosystem toward standardized listing fields, identity verification and stronger audit trails.

The market is moving from 'quantity of ads' to 'verifiable inventory'. Regulatory pressure toward broker/agency filing and practitioner real-name registration pushes platforms to standardize listing fields and tighten KYC for agents. Large platforms differentiate via verification infrastructure (e.g., Beike's Housing Dictionary used to support listing authenticity checks and valuation), which can reduce duplicate or fabricated listings and improve conversion rates, but increases operating cost and favors scale.

Discovery is increasingly algorithmic and map-centric: leading apps emphasize recommendation systems, community databases, map search, and virtual viewing, which helps buyers compare neighborhoods and price bands faster in a cautious market. However, discoverability remains fragmented by city-specific policy and heterogeneous data quality (especially across classifieds channels), so portals with cleaner, standardized listing data and better geo-coding gain a structural SEO/SEM advantage.

Winning platforms are bundling a 'transaction workflow' rather than a simple lead marketplace: digital tools for screening, scheduling viewings, document guidance, and post-transaction services are paired with offline brokerage networks. Beike explicitly positions itself as an integrated online+offline platform spanning existing homes, new homes and rentals. User experience is shaped by risk management-buyers increasingly want progress transparency and recourse mechanisms, while renters prioritize standardized contracts and managed inventory (supporting branded rental platforms like Ziroom).

Product innovation is shifting toward 'data products + services': automated valuation and collateral analytics for financial/enterprise users, plus VR/3D remote viewing and AI-assisted listing operations for consumers and agents. Beike's AI valuation offering ('e') and its disclosed AI applications illustrate this direction. Adjacent monetization is expanding into renovation and home services; Beike's public positioning includes a home renovation/furnishing pillar (''), aligning with policy momentum around urban renewal and old-community renovation.